Re: Top 10 trends

James — Sun, 06 Jul 2008 17:25:45 GMT

Ah, rich people talking about their perspective of the world and the future. This should be entertaining.

From Steve Jurvetson: ... Another market: the mental exercise market. If you are 35 or older, cognitive decline is at the same pace as 80 year olds.

The IT industry always has this 800 lbs guerrilla in the room - old people. Jurvetson has a valid point. The "Baby Boomers" will be retiring with enough disposable money to live comfortably. So what does the IT industry expect them to do with all that free-time? These people may live to be 100 years old. We're talking about 35+ years to do what? Watch Larry King Live on CNN? This generation of retirees is already healthier and more active than their predecessors. We will see a trend of old people using technology, whether or not the IT industry will believe that old people will use a computer.

From Vinod Knosla: The mobile phone will be a mainstream personal computer.

Have you ever used a QWERTY keyboard on a cell phone? It's not fun! I'm not going to participate in web blogs and send emails from my cell phone. Vinod's got the right idea, just not going in the right direction. I do wish I could carry data in my cell phone and bring it to any computer. But let's look at the reality - all these companies don't like to play together. We have Bluetooth to get devices to talk to each other, but every company makes up their own language! Or the language isn't backwards compatible. All the IT companies needs to agree to compatibility before anything that resembles what Vinod is talking about to become a reality.

From Josh Kopelman: Today your permanent record exists; you create a trail of data exhaust, digital bread crumbs. ... Conversion of data exhaust will create value in new and interesting ways.

I have a website talking about music and my audience is adults. So why is Google Adsense putting up Chucky-Cheese ads on my site? My readers go to bars to hear live music, not to child-themed pizza shops. When guerrilla advertising meets the implicit internet, it will be a disaster. But it's like old people using a computer, the IT industry just ignores it. This idea of an "Implicit Internet" does have traction, just have to make sure it doesn't go skidding out of control and off a cliff.

From Roger McNamee: Betting on smart phones: The mobile device migration to smart phones ... [blah blah blah].... (Note that McNamee’s firm is a large investor in Palm.)

I'm guessing a few of these guys have investments in cell phone companies. 4 of the 10 have to do with cell phones - or something like cell phones.

From Joe Schoendorf: Water tech will replace global warming as a global priority.

Eventually the global community has to hit this brick wall. We have the technology now to affordably provide clean drinking-water to who ever needs it. So why does this problem still exist? Really, why?

Jurvetson: Evolution trumps design... Most of the panel seem to have no idea what Jurvetson was talking about, really.

I think he was tripping on LSD. Was he talking about biomimicry?

Khosla: In 4-5 years will have production proof that can sell biofuel at well below $2 a gallon at today’s tax structure and no subsidy. Can’t imagine how big oil can stay in business if that is an alternative.

Oh they've survived this long. I have no doubt they'll kill any oil/coal alternative for a good 20 to 40 yrs to come.

Kopelman: Venture Capital 2.0.

Honestly, this could bring down big oil. I know Kopelman was talking about IT, but technology in general can get a huge boost from venture capital - especially alternative fuels. I know that here in the US, solar panel companies have out paced oil with investment returns. Imagine if all this money invested in oil were to suddenly jump out and into energy alternatives. The market is hungry for alternatives, just that no one is offering it.

And the remaining two topics are about cell phones, in one form or another.

Overall, interesting article Varun. I mean let's face it, these are the type of people who will influence technology over the next 5 to 10 years. So it's important to find out what they're thinking.

Re: Top 10 trends

Rob — Wed, 02 Jul 2008 22:31:53 GMT

Interesting list, Varun! I'm especially intrigued by the one about water tech as the next global environmental issue. I've been reading a lot about desalinization technology lately. Given the demographic trends, I hope they get that nailed before too long.

Top 10 trends

Varun — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 11:05:48 GMT

Another Churchill Club event in the Valley with some top name VCs including:

Steve Jurvetson, Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson
Vinod Khosla, Founder, Khosla Ventures
Josh Kopelman, Managing Partner, First Round Capital
Roger McNamee, Co-Founder, Elevation Partners
Joe Schoendorf, Partner, Accel Partners

Interesting to note the top 10 trends and the similarity in the themes that we discussed in Budepest.

Good summary of the comments made by the panelists can be read here:

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/05/14/at-the-churchill-club-the-top-10-tech-trends/

Full transcript is on the Churchill Club website (although at a price)

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Re: Top 10 trends

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Top 10 trends