The final two scenarios look at the potential outcomes of a world in which the established centers of institutional power have crumbled before the onslaught of bottom-up insurgency.

In A Thousand Flowers Bloom, this insurgency is led by the global Millennial generation, united and empowered by knowledge networks and fueled by an entrepreneurial approach to problem-solving. Countries with large populations of younger people reap a demographic dividend that helps them surge past the tired, aging nations beset by debt and legacy infrastructure. This new world is dynamic, media-saturated and cosmopolitan.

Shards of Glass represents the triumph of populism, for good and ill. Here, power has devolved because existing institutions collapsed under their own weight and dragged the system down with them. Communities, localities, small businesses and cooperative organizations flourish, but so too do religious extremists and fanatics of all stripes. Technology, knowledge and economic growth are stalled. These are the "exciting times" of which the Chinese proverb warns.

A Thousand Flowers Bloom

Mao provided the image, but Adam Smith's ideas of free markets and free minds dominate in a world refreshed by youth and new sources of cultural energy.

Quadrant: Bottom-up innovation, rapid and robust growth.

Brief Description: Young, rising economies armed with new technology and a sense of purpose unleash a wave of entrepreneurial innovation, upending the economic order

Business Climate: Freewheeling, vibrant and innovative companies emerge seemingly from nowhere with revolutionary new products and business models, spurring an upsurge in new investment. Many of these new companies move to acquire established industrial-age businesses at bargain prices as ways to enter new markets and leverage the trust of familiar brands. Government regulations exist, but the demands of the market, consumers and partners tend to be higher in any case.

Information Work: A collaborative global creative class, made up largely of ambitious young people from fast-growing global regions, powers economic growth with their ideas and conversations. Employers vie for the best talent on a global scale. People and communities make use of new technology to achieve work-life balance, manage their financial and healthcare choices, and pursue their independent career paths.

Consumer Experience: Consumers are bewildered by nearly limitless choices, constant changes to products and features, and companies that come and go quickly, often leaving behind inadequately supported products. Consumers use networks and technology as a filter to identify their best choices and support each other when companies leave them behind.

Social/Political Climate: Regions and cultures, moreso than countries, are engaged in intense competition for primacy and attention. Occasionally this bursts into incidents of violence and chauvinism or sectional discord. Politics is fractious and an extension of the fast-moving consumer culture: loud and boisterous, but not always coherent or pragmatic.

How We Got Here: As the economic superpowers of the 20^th century squandered their advantages during the downturn of 2009, rising economies capitalized on infrastructure investments, political reforms, falling prices of technology, and the energy of their young, tech-aware and ambitious workforces to surge to prominence. Newly-wealthy entrepreneurs in these fast-growing regions bought up household-name institutions and assets in the developed world at bargain-basement prices. Prosperity helped tamp down the embers of extremism and historical conflict, creating room for political liberalization and the establishment of durable civic institutions.

Shards of Glass

An angry mob, fed up with injustice and choked with resentment, has taken a sledge hammer to the plate-glass shop window of the world economy, leaving this scenario in its wake.

Quadrant: Sluggish, stagnant economy, bottom-up insurgency.

Brief Description: Institutional failures lead to populist uprisings, religious fundamentalism and isolationism, hindering economic recovery and increasing political turmoil

Business Climate: Many of the pillars of the global economy have failed, and their local and regional replacements lack the resources to operate at the same level. Capital is scarce and government does not have the power or the prestige to safeguard transactions, so it is difficult for anyone to scale up and take advantage of the market gaps. Managers have to think tactically because of resource constraints and operational uncertainties that cloud strategic vision.

Information Work: Much creative class and professional work has a poor reputation, owing to popular resentment of elites who tried to cling to their privileges at the expense of workers in other sectors. Energy, agriculture, industrial arts, construction and transportation jobs are most relevant to the economy as it exists, and consequently there is not much of a wage premium for information work.

Consumer Experience: With little money and few choices, the consumer does not have much to say.

Social/Political Climate: Domestic politics in most countries is full of blame, finger-pointing, and scapegoating, with little productive discourse. The surge in the youth populations of South Asia, Africa and Latin America - concentrated among the urban and rural poor - has led to an upsurge of fanaticism and violent nationalism, including some bloody confrontations and atrocities. With no authoritative sources of news following the collapse of global media and local papers, most people get their information from narrow channels that suit their ideological biases.

How We Got Here: Chastened by populist backlash following bungled attempts to bail out dying industrial-age institutions during the 2009 downturn, governments stepped back and let them fail, with calamitous results. The wave of unemployment and wealth destruction dragged the global economy into a full-fledged Depression, which created fertile conditions for the spread of extremist politics and apocalyptic religious sects. Communities banded together and began developing local resources, but distrust between groups, social classes, countries and ethnicities remains high.