In the previous post, I talked about the critical uncertainties and driving themes (forecasts) that formed the starting point for thinking about the outcomes of the financial crisis. Now comes the fun part: developing the scenarios themselves.

In my view, the two critical uncertainties hanging over the future are whether economic growth will resume or continue to be sluggish, and whether the primary mode of leadership will be top-down or bottom up.

Think about each of these uncertainties as defining an axis of a graph. The horizontal (X) axis represents economic growth. At the left pole of the axis is the slow-growth/stagnation outcome, and at the right pole is rapid recovery.

The predominant leadership mode is graphed on the vertical (Y) axis, with top-down decision-making at the northern pole, and a more bottom-up/insurgent model defining the southern pole. (see below)

With the uncertainties mapped as poles of each axis, the graph now defines four quadrants (clockwise from upper left):

• Sluggish economy with top-down leadership
• Recovering economy with top-down leadership
• Recovering economy led by outsiders and bottom-up insurgents
• Sluggish/depressed economy with decentralized leadership

Each quadrant of the graph represents a distinctly different picture of the future, or scenario. To add further color and character, I have assigned each scenario a descriptive name: Petrified Forest, Atlas Stands Tall, A Thousand Flowers Bloom, and Shards of Glass.

So what are the primary characteristics of each scenario? How and why are they importantly different?

Petrified Forest postulates a world where large organizations retain control, but have not succeeded in restoring economic growth. The logic of this outcome is fairly easy to see: the incentives motivating each large organization, be it an industry group, individual business, national or local government, etc., all dictate that each should hold onto its own prerogatives, making collective action impossible. Necessary reforms are stymied at every turn, creating a world where big interests scramble over a constantly-shrinking pie.

Atlas Stands Tall is the mirror opposite of this, where the collective action of the large stakeholders succeeds in restarting economic growth. It is a world of greater stability but less innovation. Disruptions are seen as threats to the new equilibrium, whether they are genuinely worrisome regional conflicts or the legitimate aspirations of outsiders trying to break into the club.

A Thousand Flowers Bloom paints an alternative way out of the financial downturn - one lead by emerging economies, bottom-up business models, innovation, and a rising global generation of new talent. This world is much more dynamic and fast-paced, but prone to risks, bubbles, and outbreaks of institutional amnesia that typically accompany high-velocity culture.

Shards of Glass represents the triumph of bottom-up populism, for better and worse. In this future, the failures of large institutions have deepened the crisis and strengthened the hand of extremists of all stripes, even as power devolves to more human-scale communities and organizations.

In the next posts, we will examine each scenario in more detail, looking at a few key questions. What is the business climate like in each future? What is the role of information work and information workers? How does the consumer experience differ? What are the social-economic forces at work? And finally, how did we get to this future - in other words, what signs should we look for as indicators that we may be moving in this direction?

Those questions can be addressed by looking at how the dynamic themes play out in the different conditions of each scenario. Stay tuned.